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BALANCE OF POWER: Where do the uncalled House races stand as GOP nears majority?

As Republicans inch closer to capturing a majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, there are still 19 races yet to be called that will determine how close the margins could be for the party should it ultimately prevail.

A party must win 218 seats to win a majority in the 435-seat body, a feat appearing to be within the grasp of the GOP, who have won 212 seats so far to Democrats’ 204.

Here is where the remaining races stand as votes continue to be counted in states across the country:

AK-AL – Alaska’s At Large Congressional District has been rated by Fox News’ Power Rankings as ‘lean Democratic’ due to the state’s newly implemented ranked-choice voting system giving incumbent Democrat Rep. Mary Peltola an advantage against her Republican opponents, former Gov. Sarah Palin and Nick Begich. Peltola lead in the first round of the vote, with Palin in second and Begich in third, but failed to secure 50%, meaning those who voted for the candidate with the least number of votes will have their second choice vote reallocated to the other candidates until one reaches 50%. The second round tabulation is scheduled to take place on Wednesday, Nov. 23. 

ME-02 – Maine similarly implemented a ranked-choice voting system following a state-wide referendum in 2016. Incumbent Democratic Rep. Jared Golden failed to reach 50% of the vote last week, but is currently leading former Republican Congressman Bruce Poliquin, who represented the district from 2015 to 2019. The second round tabulation is scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 15. Fox News’ Power Rankings has rated the race as a toss-up.

AZ-01 – Incumbent Republican Rep. David Schweikert is narrowly leading his opponent, Democrat Jevin Hodge, by less than 1,000 votes in this ‘lean Republican’ seat. Mail-ballots had to be received by election officials no later than 7:00 p.m. local time on Election Night, however, all ballots must go through a signature verification process before being counted. The verification and counting process is still ongoing.

AZ-06 – Republican Juan Ciscomani currently holds a lead of less than 2,000 votes over Democrat Kirsten Engel. Much like the 1st district, all mail-in ballots needed to arrive no later than 7:00 p.m. local time on Election Night and must go through a signature verification process before being counted. The verification and counting process is still ongoing. Fox News’ Power Rankings has rated the race as ‘lean Republican.’

CA-03 – Republican Kevin Kiley holds a commanding lead over Democrat Kermit Jones; however, approximately only a little over half of ballots have been counted in the ‘likely Republican’ race. California accepts mail-ballots for the week following Election Day, although the ballots must be postmarked by Election Day. Similar to Arizona, California ballots also must go through a signature verification process before being counted.

CA-06 – Incumbent Democratic Rep. Ami Bera is leading Republican challenger Tamika Hamilton in this safe Democratic seat.

CA-09 – Incumbent Democratic Rep. Josh Harder holds a large lead over Republican challenger Tom Patti in this ‘lean Democratic’ seat.

CA-13 – This toss-up race is among the tightest remaining as Republican John Duarte narrowly leads Democrat Adam Gray by less than 90 votes.

CA-21 – This safe Democratic seat is still yet to be called due to the ongoing vote count; however, incumbent Democratic Rep. Jim Costa leads Republican challenger Michael Maher by more than 7,000 votes. 

CA-22 – In another tight race, incumbent Republican Rep. David Valadao leads Democratic challenger Rudy Salas by nearly 3,000 votes. Fox News’ Power rankings has rated the race as a toss-up.

CA-27 – Incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Garcia holds a commanding lead over Democratic challenger Christy Smith by nearly 15,000 votes in the ‘lean Republican’ seat.

CA-34 – This safe Democratic seat is a tight race between two Democrats, incumbent Rep. Jimmy Gomez and David Kim.

CA-41 – Incumbent Republican Rep. Kevin Calvert holds a narrow lead over Democratic challenger Will Rollins in this ‘likely Republican’ seat. Calvert leads with just over 4,000 votes.

CA-45 – In another ‘lean Republican’ race, incumbent GOP Rep. Michelle Steel leads Democratic challenger Jay Chen by more than 12,000 votes.

CA-47 – Incumbent Democratic Rep. Katie Porter leads Republican challenger Scott Baugh by more than 5,000 votes in this toss-up race.

CA-49 – This toss-up race currently has incumbent Democratic Rep. Mike Levin leading Republican challenger Brian Maryott by nearly 13,000 votes.

CO-03 – Incumbent Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert was not expected to have such a close race with her Democratic opponent, Adam Frisch, in the ‘likely Republican’ seat, however, the one-term Congresswoman is narrowly leading the vote count by a little more than 1,000 votes. Mail-in ballots can arrive as late as Wednesday as long as they were postmarked by Election Day, meaning the count could continue into later this week.

CO-08 – Democratic candidate Yadira Caraveo narrowly leads Republican candidate Barbara Kirkmeyer in this ‘lean Republican’ race, but, like the 3rd district race, mail-in ballots can arrive as late as Wednesday as long as they were postmarked by Election Day. 

NY-22 – This ‘lean Republican’ race is still waiting on a number of mail-in and affidavit ballots cast on Election Day to be verified and counted. Republican Brandon Williams narrowly leads Democrat Francis Conole by just under 4,000 votes.

OR-06 – Democrat Andrea Salinas currently leads Republican Mike Erickson by more than 4,000 votes. Mail-in ballots are still being accepted and counted as long as they were postmarked by Election Day. Oregon conducts its elections primarily by mail. Fox News’ Power Rankings has rated the race a toss-up.

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