Kamala Harris’ most likely path to the presidency hinges on her winning the swing state of Michigan – but with just weeks left until Election Day, she is facing an unexpected groundswell of opposition from the state’s Jewish population, which has increasingly soured on the Biden administration’s response to the Middle East conflict. 

The drop-off in support among Jewish voters could spell trouble for Harris in Michigan, considered to be a must-win state, and where the state’s Muslim and Arab American populations have been increasingly vocal about their disapproval of the U.S. response to Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon.

Now, discontent now appears to be spreading to the state’s Jewish voters as well, threatening a key bedrock of support in the state.

Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich., whose suburban Detroit district is home to a large Jewish American population, told the New York Times this week that she has seen a drop-off in support for Harris among younger Jewish voters who are disenfranchised by the Biden administration’s handling of the Middle East crisis and failure to take stronger action on a policy reset in the region.

Stevens told the Times that the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks that Hamas launched on Israel have indeed rallied some Jewish constituents together to combat what they see as rising hatred and antisemitism. But she noted that other, younger voters in the community are turned off by the administration’s unwavering support for Israel in the face of the intensifying conflict – policies enacted under the Biden administration, but which Harris must now confront as the party’s presidential nominee.

Nearly two-thirds of Michigan’s Jewish electorate identifies as Democratic or Democratic-leaning, according to data collected by Brandeis University’s Steinhardt Social Research Institute. In previous elections, this majority has been a fairly reliable bedrock of support for Democratic presidential nominees.

But that support is anything but guaranteed this year. ‘I do know some more independent-type voters, and I have heard from friends with young families, of friends of theirs who have traditionally voted Democrat, that they feel a little split,’ Stevens told the Times.  

This loss of support among Jewish voters in the state could be particularly damaging to Harris’ chances of victory in Michigan and her broader path to the presidency, which hinges on victory in the key battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Still, it’s Michigan where Harris could find herself in particularly hot water. 

As the violence in the Middle East escalates, Harris has struggled to earn the support of Michigan’s Muslim and Arab American populations, including some who have organized local voters to withhold support for the vice president in order to protest the Biden administration’s response to the war. 

The state is home to roughly 300,000 voters of Middle Eastern descent, according to the most recent census data.

In recent months, some groups have urged communities to back Green Party candidate Jill Stein, while others said they are weighing the idea of backing Republican candidate Donald Trump – an almost unthinkable position just four years ago, when the former president’s so-called ‘Muslim ban’ and other policies prompted Muslim voters to support Joe Biden by a strong 64% to 84% majority in 2020, according to exit polls.